You are on a game show on television. On this game show the idea is to win a car as a prize. The game show host shows you three doors. He says that there is a car behind one of the doors and there are goats behind the other two doors. He asks you to pick a door. You pick a door but the door is not opened. Then the game show host opens one of the doors you didn't pick to show a goat (because he knows what is behind he doors). Then he says that you have one final chance to change your mind before the doors are opened. So he asks you if you want to change your mind
and pick the other unopened door instead. What should you do?
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You pick the other door.
ReplyDeleteThe only person who knows whats behind the door is the presenter himself.
At the start when you are told to pick a door, you only have a 33.3% chance of picking the door. When the presenter opens one of the doors and reveals the goat, the chances of the other 2 doors increase. So when he gives you the other choice, you'll instantly choose the other door.
I still completely disagree with the "right" answer to this question.
ReplyDeleteThe correct thing to do in this game is to change your guess. you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning if you do not change your guess, but a 1 in 2 chance if you change your pick.
ReplyDelete